Zimbabwe rarely makes it into the news, except in regards to its venal autocratic regime and sensational rate of hyperinflation. But for all its woes — and perhaps because of them — the country’s citizens have proven to be creative, resilient, and resourceful, as evidenced in part by their fascinating idea of “friendship benches” –nondescript park benches located throughout major cities that help facilitate therapy and mental health services. Continue reading
One of the key reasons why the African continent seems perennially rife with tribal, ethnic, and religious conflict — more so within countries than between them — harkens back to borders imposed upon the diverse peoples of Africa by European colonials. Even a casual glance of a political map of Africa show how odd and idiosyncratic many of its borders are.
According to a recent report by the London-based NGO Amnesty International, just ten countries host more than half the world’s 21 million refugees, nearly all of them poor or developing countries:
- Jordan (2.7 million)
- Turkey (2.5 million)
- Pakistan (1.6 million)
- Lebanon (1.5 million)
- Iran (979,400)
- Ethiopia (736,100)
- Kenya (553,900)
- Uganda (477,200)
- Democratic Republic of Congo (383,100)
- Chad (369,500)
These nations disproportionately host refugees due to mere proximity: those escaping persecution, conflict, or socioeconomic instability will immediately flee to the nearest and most accessible safe havens; most cannot afford to simply catch a flight to a far away country (which might in any case turn them away). Continue reading
While the fate and power of most nations is judged usually by military and economic factors, demographics — the size, make up, and growth rate of the population — are of equally vital consideration. A country’s population is its greatest resource — especially when it is well invested in — and military and economic might are best achieved with larger, younger, and more well-educated people.
The United Nations Population Division, a leading source of demographic data from around the world, has released projections of what the world’s population will look like by 2100. Much of the developing world, centered on Sub Saharan Africa, is poised to become one of the leading economic, political, and cultural centers of the world, with young and fast growing populations supporting vibrant economies while the developed world copes with rapidly aging and shrinking populations.
Of course, these are just estimates, and a lot can change in nine decades; moreover, it is not a given the governments and elites of these nations will make the most of their demographic dividend. But the following rundown and analysis, courtesy of The Washington Post, shows what dramatic changes are may be in store for the world order in the coming century.
1. Africa booms, Asia plateaus, and Europe shrinks
It is a good thing Africa is such a large continent, because it total population is expected to more than quadruple within the century. That means “four times the workforce, four times the resource burden, four times as many voters”, to say nothing of the subsequent global clout; long after Asia and Europe peak — the former in fifty years, the latter as we speak — Africa will keep gaining more people for generations. Meanwhile, North and South America will continue to grow at a slow yet sustainable rate.
2. Nigeria Rises
While Africa takes center stage in the world, it is Nigeria in particular that will lead the way. Already the most populous country on the continent by a significant margin, and fifth most in the world, the country will be home to nearly a billion people by the end of the century — all living within an area roughly the size of Texas. This is an incredible, if disconcerting, rate of growth in a country rife with corruption, instability, sectarian conflict, and abject poverty — yet also with tremendous potential, resource wealth, and entrepreneurial spirit. If the government plays it hands right, Nigeria could be the next China — a major player in the global economy with a large and talented workforce, and thus a probable world power.
Speaking of China, the nation of 1.5 billion is in the midst of a demographic crisis, as its population stagnates and ages rapidly, undercutting economic growth while placing a financial burden on the government and its people. And while it will “continue to be an enormous, important and most likely very successful country”, its demographics will place considerable challenges on its aspirations and potential.
As for the other contender for new superpower status, India’s country will continue to grow at a healthy rate until around 2065, by which point it would have long surpassed China as the world’s most populous country. Its population will still be fairly young, and it, too, will have great potential to be a major cultural, economic, and military power, provided it makes the necessary investment in infrastructure, healthcare, and education.
Indonesia, presently the world’s fourth largest country by population, will continue to grow moderately, though like Nigeria, it punches below its weight despite its size, and faces similar constraints to its population growth in the form of environmental degradation, corruption, and poor infrastructure.
Finally, the United States will remain an outlier in the developed world by continuing to grow at a steady and sustainable pace, with room to spare. While its challenges are obviously not as vast as those of its developing world counterparts, mounting inequality, political dysfunction, and infrastructural deficiencies will need to be addressed to take advantage of its unique balance of wealth and population vitality.
3. The world economy pivots to Africa
Given the aforementioned population explosion, Africa may continue down the path of Asia, which also came to political and economic prominence amid and because of its young and growing population; indeed, Africa will be almost as big as Asia by the end of a century, catching up with unprecedented speed:
Between 1950 and 2050, Asia’s population will have grown by a factor of 3.7, almost quadrupling in just a hundred years. Africa’s population, over its own century of growth from 2000 to 2100, will grow by a factor of 5.18 – significantly faster than Asia
Pause for a moment to consider Asia’s boom over the last 50 years – the rise of first Japan, then South Korea, now China and maybe next India – and the degree to which it’s already changed the world and will continue to change it. Africa is expected to grow even more than Asia.
Of course, Asia’s progress had as much to do with good governance and prudence resource management than it did with demographic. If African nations can harness their population boom and make the necessary public investment, then the largest and most prominent among them — Nigeria, South Africa, Kenya, Tanzania, Ethiopia, to name but a few — can be the next Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. Otherwise…
If they don’t improve, exploding population growth could only worsen resource competition – and we’re talking here about basics like food, water and electricity – which in turn makes political instability and conflict more likely. The fact that there will be a “youth bulge” of young people makes that instability and conflict more likely.
It’s a big, entirely foreseeable danger. Whether Africa is able to prepare for its coming population boom may well be one of the most important long-term challenges the world faces right now.
4. Not just more people, but more longer-lived people
As a testament to their socioeconomic progress, the average lifespan in both Africa and Asia on both continents is and will continue to grow. By 2100, Africans will be living 50 percent longer, equal to the North American average today, albeit it still lower than the rest of the world will be by the point. Within the century, the average European and North American will be 87.6 and 89 respectively, an amazing achievement that will nonetheless strain social security systems and economies if not properly prepared for. (Cue automation and guaranteed basic income?)
5. Immigration may save the West
Barring an unanticipated baby boom, most of Europe and the West world will face dramatic population decline, as is already occurring in places like Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, and Ukraine (each among the more populous states in the continent). Unless they can incentivize higher birth rates or offer better economic prospects for raising a family, opening their borders to more new citizens will be the only and most immediate way to reverse course; indeed, generous immigration policies are what have kept the U.S., Canada, Australia, and New Zealand steadily growing into the future, despite falling fertility rates.
Of course, the high levels of immigration needed to offset the rapid population decline would come with its own risks, namely cultural clashes, the challenge of assimilation, and mounting, potentially violent nativist resentment. In an ideal world, perhaps the surplus of young people in the developing world could be channeled to the shrinking nations of the rich world, who could use more laborers and caregivers. This has already begun to happen to a certain degree, and over time it would mitigate imbalance of the world’s demographics, wherein growth and youth will be concentrated in poorer regions.
The see the rest of the Post’s analysis beyond this broad overview, click here. Otherwise, as usual, please share your thoughts and comments.
Nigeria is one of Africa’s leading powers — an significant achievement in a continent of 54 nations and over 1 billion people, almost 16 percent of whom are Nigerian nationals. With Africa’s largest economy as of 2014, and now the 20th largest one in the world, it has been classified as an emerging global power for its impressive speed of development.
Nigeria hardly comes to most minds when one thinks of cinema. But as CNN highlights, Africa’s most populous country — and one of the world’s potential great powers — is already making its mark in the ever-more globalized film industry.
Nigeria’s film industry pumps out around 50 movies per week and is estimated to generate around $600 million annually for the country’s economy. With more than 1,200 films a year, it’s the world’s second biggest producer behind India. Nollywood is also Nigeria’s second biggest provider of work, employing directly or indirectly more than one million people, according to the United States International Trade Commission.
However, films are typically low-budget and revenues are small. One of the highest grossing Nollywood film so far is thought to be “Ije: The journey”, which generated $500,000 when it was released in 2010. It stars two of Nollywood’s biggest stars, Genevieve Nnaji and Omotola Jalade-Ekeinde as sisters fighting for justice.
Most Nigerian films are released directly to DVD or television; Netflix recently dedicated an entire section to Nollywood. These media platforms, plus the low cost of production, gives Nigerian cinema an image problem — though not if filmmakers could help it.
In recent years, a new wave of filmmakers who want to shake off Nollywood’s reputation for shoddy productions is emerging. Dubbed the New Nigeria cinema, these young professionals want to create a movie industry which can compete with Hollywood — not just in quantity but also quality.
Actor Wale Ojo, one of the biggest supporters of the movement, told CNN: “New Nigeria Cinema basically means an elevation of Nigerian film — high production values, good strong narratives, stories that capture the essence of who we are as Nigerians, as Africans.
“And it means also that these films can be shown at international film festivals anywhere in the world, from Toronto to Cannes to Venice.”
For all its cultural richness and creative talent, Africa is not yet known globally for its art scene. But with improving living standards, greater investment in education and fine arts programs, and growing access to technology, an increasing number of aspiring artists on the continent are finding it more palatable to engage in and market their works.
Among the many African artists leading the way is Olumide Oresegun, a Nigerian painter whose works are breathtakingly realistic and details. Many of them look like outright photographs.
The 35-year-old has had a passion for art his whole life, and has been painting professionally for nearly decade. But since posting photos of his paintings on Instagram, he has garnered much international attention — rightfully so in my view — which he hopes will help serve as a springboard for other African artists.
Learn more about the artist at PRI.org.
According to the U.N., Africa’s population is projected to quadruple to over 4.4. billion people by 2100. By then, the total number of people in the world is estimated to be around 11 billion, meaning that Africa alone will account for over a third of the global population and almost all of the new population growth over the next century.
As The Economist points out, this staggeringly high growth rate — contrasted with stagnating, if not declining, populations almost everywhere else — will have tremendous implications for both the continent and the world at large. Continue reading
As the world’s fastest growing continent both demographically and economically, Africa harbors tremendous promise to its multitude of peoples. The Africa Growth Initiative, a project of The Brookings Institution, one of the world’s foremost think tanks, offers an in-depth and comprehensive report on Africa’s future and the key areas and strategies that its governments can implement to ensure continued prosperity.
The report, Foresight Africa, is divided into six parts, from economic policy to urban development, and comprises the perspectives of academics, policymakers, consultants, and other specialists deeply involved in and familiar with the continent. In addition to being dense with data, its got lots of visuals to help illustrate the potential of this dynamic region — and how best to unleash it. Continue reading
From The Guardian:
The results of the trials involving 4,000 people are remarkable because of the unprecedented speed with which the development of the vaccine and the testing were carried out.
Scientists, doctors, donors and drug companies collaborated to race the vaccine through a process that usually takes more than a decade in just 12 months.
“Having seen the devastating effects of Ebola on communities and even whole countries with my own eyes, I am very encouraged by today’s news”, said Børge Brende, the foreign minister of Norway, which helped fund the trial.
“This new vaccine, if the results hold up, may be the silver bullet against Ebola, helping to bring the current outbreak to zero and to control future outbreaks of this kind. I would like to thank all partners who have contributed to achieve this sensational result, due to an extraordinary and rapid collaborative effort”, he said on Friday.
To test how well the vaccine protected people, the cluster outbreaks were randomly assigned either to receive the vaccine immediately or three weeks after Ebola was confirmed. Among the 2,014 people vaccinated immediately, there were no cases of Ebola from 10 days after vaccination — allowing time for immunity to develop — according to the results published online in the Lancet medical journal (pdf). In the clusters with delayed vaccination, there were 16 cases out of 2,380.
In another precedent-breaker, the trial was sponsored by the World Health Organisation because “nobody wanted to step into this role so we took the risk”, said assistant director-general, Dr Marie-Paule Kieny.
Funding came from the Wellcome Trust and other partners including the governments of Norway and Canada. Others involved included Médecins sans Frontières, whose volunteer doctors were on the frontline, and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. About 90% of the trial staff were from Guinea, a country where no clinical research had been carried out before. The vaccine is made by Merck.
The data will soon go to regulatory agencies for licensing purposes, after which it can be produced and stockpiled for any future Ebola epidemics. Thus far the plan is to use it only for those most at risk in outbreaks, rather than administered to entire populations. Here is hoping everything pans out. Continue reading