Mexico — Rising Global Power?

In honor of Mexican Independence Day, a hard-fought achievement that absolutely did not happen on Cinco de Mayo, I present some facts to counter the country’s warped and narrow image in the United States (most resoundingly apparent in the cycle of hysteria around illegal immigration).

For starters, overall immigration from south of the border has, as of 2013, declined by 80 percent since 2007, the lowest at any point since 1991. Not only does the number of Mexicans returning home outnumber those leaving the country, but more Americans have left for Mexico than the other way around, an underreported trend that has surged since 2005. (Subsequently, our southern neighbor hosts over one million U.S. citizens, the most of any country in the world.)

Moreover, this trend is likely to be permanent, since Mexico is actually doing far better than most people realize, despite its many pressing social and political problems. Following the recession, the Mexican economy has grown twice as fast as America’s, and was among the fastest growing in the world in some years (albeit from a much lower base). Depending on the metric used, Mexico has the 11th to 15th largest economy in the world, and is predicted by groups like Goldman Sachs and the World Bank to become the fifth to seventh largest economy by 2050 – around the level that France, Germany, and the U.K. are at today.

A few analysts have gone even further by suggesting that Mexico could become an influential global power in its own right. This is not as far fetched as it may initially sound: in many areas, such as infrastructure and business climate, the country is at least comparable, if superior, to Brazil, China, India, Russia, and other identified emerging powers; it has even earned coveted classification as one of several economic powerhouses to look out for — see the MINT group or the Next Eleven.

These accolades are well deserved. Since the mid-1990s, the majority of Mexicans have joined a rapidly growing middle-class, warranting the county’s official classification as a newly industrialized nation (NIC), a distinction only a handful of developing countries have achieved. Mexico’s average life expectancy and poverty rate is comparable to the U.S. (thanks in part to its universal healthcare system), while one-third of Mexican states have a violent crime rate equal to or even less than that of many U.S. states.

To be sure, Mexico is still enduring many problems, namely one of the worst rates of violence and income inequality in the world. Its political system, while free and robust by developing-world standards, is nonetheless rife with corruption and venality. Many intractable challenges face the country, but it is not the dystopia that popular culture and news media make it out to be, and it certainly has a lot of potential.

So Mexicans have a lot to be proud of this independence day. Despite the grim present circumstances, their long and rich history demonstrates a seemingly boundless capacity for perseverance, resourcefulness, and hope. Here is hoping that our good neighbor to the south continues steadily along the path to progress.

Photo courtesy of Lavidavalle.com and RaquelParaiso.blogspot.com.

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